Checking In on the Ole' Soap Box

If you have been in the Bleachers at all this college football season, it's safe to say that you've noticed I have a particular topic I'm fairly passionate about.  I have gotten up on the soap box and gone to bat more than a couple times for the Boise State football program, follow me on twitter if you want to see the entire Guiding Lights routine (@ToTheBleachers).

Now I know I've been away for a little bit and my blog has suffered, as has my ability to watch football on the weekends, so I figured I'd go ahead and check in on my favorite topic as sort of a easing back into the whole blogging thing.

In Idaho, the sky is falling and everything has gone to hell at Smurf Village.  The Boise State Broncos started the year ranked Number 3 in the AP Top 25 college football poll.  Since then, they have done nothing but been stellar.  Prior to today's match up with Hawaii, the Broncos boast a perfect 7-0 record and have climbed to the 2nd spot in the AP poll.

Led by Quarterback Kellen Moore, who has the nations best QB Rating at 188.3, the Bronco offense finds itself in the top 5 rankings for both Yards and Points per Game.  Boise State's average margin of victory in its 7 games this year, a whopping 36.3 points, a number that is limited by a 3 point season opening victory against then number 10 Va Tech.

The Bronco defensive unit has been even more impressive.  Led by a monstrous Defensive Line that has racked up a robust 24.0 sacks, the D has pitched two shut outs and held a third team to under 10 points.  In games against teams not named Va Tech and Oregon State, Boise is only allowing 8 points a game.

Despite these impressive numbers, the Broncos find themselves actually going in reverse when it comes to the BCS rankings.  When the end all be all here's your champion poll was released, Boise debuted at number 3 behind Oregon and Oklahoma.  The following Saturday, Boomer Sooner comes up short losing to Mizzou.  Thanks to a Tuesday night match-up with Louisiana Tech the Bronco's spent that Saturday watching Auburn earn an impressive win against LSU instead of playing.  Coincidentally, a day later, the Broncos watched the War Eagle leap frog Boise in the BCS.

The Smurf Turf was rocking that Tuesday as Kellen Moore throws for two touchdowns and actually catches a third en route to a 49-20 victory.  That mid week game, however, meant that Boise would again be dormant on college football Saturday.  Now, a sane man would not expect that a home victory over a 3-5 team would be enough for Boise to knock either Oregon or Auburn down a peg, but that same sane man wouldn't expect TCU's 48-6 victory over a 1 win UNLV team to be enough for the Horned Frogs to over take Boise either.

Unfortunately for the fans in Idaho, there's absolutely nothing the Broncos can do.  The debate throughout the preseason was can Boise do enough to earn a spot in final two.  There were a couple of things that needed to happen in order for Chris Peterson's team to get a Championship Bid.  First and foremost, win all the time and win big, check.  Then you'll need a little help along the way, in other words, someone has to beat Alabama or Ohio State.  Double check there, both South Carolina and Wisconsin gave Boise an early Christmas present in a pair of October wins.

Even though all of this has happened, Boise still finds itself on the outside looking in.  It's not the Bronco's fault that the Hokies laid an egg against James Madison and is only ranked 20th in the nation.  Boise also wasn't on the field two weeks ago when Oregon State lost in double over-time to Washington, a game they have yet to recover from in the rankings.

And while it appears the fates of two other teams is damning the Broncos, the Horned Frogs seemed to be unphased by it.  It's understood and agreed upon that after today, TCU will have played an opponent much better than Boise has.  But the simple fact of the matter remains, to date, the Broncos have played a schedule that is more difficult than the Horned Frogs.  TCU's biggest win of the year was a 9 point win against Oregon State, the same Beaver squad that Boise beat by 13 points two weeks later.

It's not even an issue anymore as to whether or not the pollsters want a non automatic qualifier in the championship game.  If there's one thing the BCS rankings have shown this year, it's that one big game makes all the difference.  In other words, should TCU beat Utah today, the Frog's will most certainly find themselves ranked in one of the top two spots.  Even more frustrating for Boise fans, should Utah beat TCU, Utah will probably find themselves moving into TCU's potentially vacant spot, if not the Number 2 spot in the BCS.

As we enter the final quarter of the college football season we're exactly where we started at.  If Boise has any shot of making the Championship, they need to win out and win big as well as finding a little help along the way.  About the best thing that can happen for the Broncos is for TCU to win tonight.  The Horned Frogs will have reached the apex of their BCS ranking and will require total destruction of San Diego State and New Mexico to maintain that ranking.

One could argue that a Utah win would do more for the Broncos, but they don't realize that the Utes still have three games, two of which against Notre Dame and BYU.  And if there's one thing thing the media likes to do, it's pay tribute to the tradition of big named schools, no matter how bad they are.

Cough, Cough, Notre Dame, Cough, Michigan, Cough, Cough

Boise will also need both Va Tech and Oregon State to win out.  The Hokies would find themselves ending up around number 15 in that scenario but Oregon State would be the key.  The Beavers final two games of the year are against Stanford and the Civil War against Oregon.  Consecutive wins against highly ranked teams will surely boost the Beaver's credibility, and, in turn, boost Boise's credibility, especially in the computer polls.

After all, the computers are the reason Boise is even in this position to begin with.  Wait a minute, maybe Skynet really does exist.

A Mid-Majors BCS Championship Dream

We're officially one week away from the kick-off of the College Football season and ESPN is already calling it a "September to Remember."   The NCAA has graced us with a non-conference slate that includes 12 games between pre-season Top 25 teams in the first four weeks alone.  And if you aren't salivating yet, 5 of those 12 games feature a Top 5 program.

But what we'll remember up here in the Bleachers is not how many elite games we had the privilege of watching while Bama's Roll Tiding over the Buckeyes in the BCS Championship, if you prefer to listen to the pundits.  No, we'll remember the little guy catching a break for once.

As it stands right now, the five best teams in college football, according to the AP Top 25, are Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, Florida and Texas in that order.  For those of you that just did a double take there's no need to adjust your screen, you read it right, Boise State is ranked number 3 in the nation.  The same Bronco football team that is best known for playing on "Smurf Turf", the hook and ladder and that running back who proposed to a cheerleader after beating Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

I'll be the first to say it, seeing the WAC's finest near the top of college footballs biggest poll seems a little odd, and I've been singing the praises of Little Brother U for quite some time.  No more than a decade ago the thought of a mid-major earning pre-season recognition was still considered laughable, hell, prior to this year no mid-major had even started a season higher than number 14.

Here we are however, theoretically just one Bama/Buckeye loss away from witnessing our first small school playing for a National Championship in the modern era.  And that's the beauty of it, with just that one loss the Bronco's are in complete and total control over their future.  Some might argue that an undefeated Florida or Texas would leap frog an undefeated BSU, but Boise's athletic department did one hell of a job setting up a schedule to help steer off the naysayers.

The Broncos start off the season at a not so neutral site against 10th ranked Virginia Tech and then host 24th ranked Oregon State two weeks later with a breather game against Wyoming between them.  Assuming Boise enters October with a 3-0 record, their chances of running the table are better than excellent.

As for that one loss needed from Alabama or Ohio State, the Tide face a beast of a schedule that includes 5 games against the preseason Top 25 and a trip to the SEC Championship en route to an undefeated season.  Ohio State must face 4 ranked opponents (all in the Top 20) and a potentially dangerous rivalry game to the end season.  Although I am very confident Alabama can run the table, I just don't see Ohio St. making it through a schedule that features Miami, Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State with a clean record, they normally have trouble if they have to face two ranked teams.

This leaves one lose end that could make things a little unsettling for Bronco fans come bowl season, the teams just behind Boise in the rankings.  Florida can't leap frog BSU without beating Alabama, and if Florida beats Alabama, the Gators would just assume the position they knocked the Tide out of.  Then there's the Big XII.  Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska are all in the Top 10.  In order for Texas to leap frog Boise they will have to beat Oklahoma and Nebraska in consecutive weeks plus win the conference championship while replacing their record setting quarterback and five other picks taken in the first four rounds of this years draft.

Oklahoma will have to beat Florida State, Texas and win the Big XII championship game with a still inexperienced QB, a new LT and defense that lost a vast majority of its starters from 2010.  Nebraska will have to go undefeated and possibly beat Texas twice in the same year without Ndamukong Suh to make up for a lack luster offense.  At best, one team will make it through the Big XII undefeated, and that is a tall feat considering no other conference lost so many key difference makers to the NFL.

Now, this isn't a guarantee that we'll be watching Boise play for the Sears trophy come January, but don't be surprised to see it happen either.  In the end, an undefeated BSU will probably do just enough to earn a shot at the title should Alabama and Ohio State not go a combined 25-0.  And if Boise does end up losing a game this year the dream of a mid-major champion isn't completely dead, after all, TCU is ranked number 6.