Checking In on the Ole' Soap Box

If you have been in the Bleachers at all this college football season, it's safe to say that you've noticed I have a particular topic I'm fairly passionate about.  I have gotten up on the soap box and gone to bat more than a couple times for the Boise State football program, follow me on twitter if you want to see the entire Guiding Lights routine (@ToTheBleachers).

Now I know I've been away for a little bit and my blog has suffered, as has my ability to watch football on the weekends, so I figured I'd go ahead and check in on my favorite topic as sort of a easing back into the whole blogging thing.

In Idaho, the sky is falling and everything has gone to hell at Smurf Village.  The Boise State Broncos started the year ranked Number 3 in the AP Top 25 college football poll.  Since then, they have done nothing but been stellar.  Prior to today's match up with Hawaii, the Broncos boast a perfect 7-0 record and have climbed to the 2nd spot in the AP poll.

Led by Quarterback Kellen Moore, who has the nations best QB Rating at 188.3, the Bronco offense finds itself in the top 5 rankings for both Yards and Points per Game.  Boise State's average margin of victory in its 7 games this year, a whopping 36.3 points, a number that is limited by a 3 point season opening victory against then number 10 Va Tech.

The Bronco defensive unit has been even more impressive.  Led by a monstrous Defensive Line that has racked up a robust 24.0 sacks, the D has pitched two shut outs and held a third team to under 10 points.  In games against teams not named Va Tech and Oregon State, Boise is only allowing 8 points a game.

Despite these impressive numbers, the Broncos find themselves actually going in reverse when it comes to the BCS rankings.  When the end all be all here's your champion poll was released, Boise debuted at number 3 behind Oregon and Oklahoma.  The following Saturday, Boomer Sooner comes up short losing to Mizzou.  Thanks to a Tuesday night match-up with Louisiana Tech the Bronco's spent that Saturday watching Auburn earn an impressive win against LSU instead of playing.  Coincidentally, a day later, the Broncos watched the War Eagle leap frog Boise in the BCS.

The Smurf Turf was rocking that Tuesday as Kellen Moore throws for two touchdowns and actually catches a third en route to a 49-20 victory.  That mid week game, however, meant that Boise would again be dormant on college football Saturday.  Now, a sane man would not expect that a home victory over a 3-5 team would be enough for Boise to knock either Oregon or Auburn down a peg, but that same sane man wouldn't expect TCU's 48-6 victory over a 1 win UNLV team to be enough for the Horned Frogs to over take Boise either.

Unfortunately for the fans in Idaho, there's absolutely nothing the Broncos can do.  The debate throughout the preseason was can Boise do enough to earn a spot in final two.  There were a couple of things that needed to happen in order for Chris Peterson's team to get a Championship Bid.  First and foremost, win all the time and win big, check.  Then you'll need a little help along the way, in other words, someone has to beat Alabama or Ohio State.  Double check there, both South Carolina and Wisconsin gave Boise an early Christmas present in a pair of October wins.

Even though all of this has happened, Boise still finds itself on the outside looking in.  It's not the Bronco's fault that the Hokies laid an egg against James Madison and is only ranked 20th in the nation.  Boise also wasn't on the field two weeks ago when Oregon State lost in double over-time to Washington, a game they have yet to recover from in the rankings.

And while it appears the fates of two other teams is damning the Broncos, the Horned Frogs seemed to be unphased by it.  It's understood and agreed upon that after today, TCU will have played an opponent much better than Boise has.  But the simple fact of the matter remains, to date, the Broncos have played a schedule that is more difficult than the Horned Frogs.  TCU's biggest win of the year was a 9 point win against Oregon State, the same Beaver squad that Boise beat by 13 points two weeks later.

It's not even an issue anymore as to whether or not the pollsters want a non automatic qualifier in the championship game.  If there's one thing the BCS rankings have shown this year, it's that one big game makes all the difference.  In other words, should TCU beat Utah today, the Frog's will most certainly find themselves ranked in one of the top two spots.  Even more frustrating for Boise fans, should Utah beat TCU, Utah will probably find themselves moving into TCU's potentially vacant spot, if not the Number 2 spot in the BCS.

As we enter the final quarter of the college football season we're exactly where we started at.  If Boise has any shot of making the Championship, they need to win out and win big as well as finding a little help along the way.  About the best thing that can happen for the Broncos is for TCU to win tonight.  The Horned Frogs will have reached the apex of their BCS ranking and will require total destruction of San Diego State and New Mexico to maintain that ranking.

One could argue that a Utah win would do more for the Broncos, but they don't realize that the Utes still have three games, two of which against Notre Dame and BYU.  And if there's one thing thing the media likes to do, it's pay tribute to the tradition of big named schools, no matter how bad they are.

Cough, Cough, Notre Dame, Cough, Michigan, Cough, Cough

Boise will also need both Va Tech and Oregon State to win out.  The Hokies would find themselves ending up around number 15 in that scenario but Oregon State would be the key.  The Beavers final two games of the year are against Stanford and the Civil War against Oregon.  Consecutive wins against highly ranked teams will surely boost the Beaver's credibility, and, in turn, boost Boise's credibility, especially in the computer polls.

After all, the computers are the reason Boise is even in this position to begin with.  Wait a minute, maybe Skynet really does exist.

Back To The Heisman

One of the best things about the start of football season is the sudden influx of football talk.  Television networks everywhere begin to roll out their coverage and a solid chunk of sports fandom breathes a collective sigh of relief.  At the Bleachers, there's no ill-will towards Major League Baseball or the Premier League, who dominate the second half of the summer, but they don't call the months prior to football training camps the dry season for nothing.

With college football stepping up to the starters block, analysts everywhere are giving you their impressions on which schools have the best shot at being crowned national champions, what schools are flying under the radar and who are the frontrunners for the Heisman trophy.  We're no different, so, without further ado, Heisman Finalist predictions I'm 86% sure you can take to the bank.

Let's begin with the incumbent, Mark Ingram.  The Alabama running back rushed for 1,658 yards, 4th highest total in the nation, and 17 touchdowns as a sophomore in the best conference in college football.  Ingram was also challenged with the unenviable task of being the go to option for an offense that had to break in a new Quarterback and Left Tackle.  Despite this, the greater the challenge Ingram faced the better he performed racking up 941 yards and 8 touchdowns in 6 games against Top 25 opponents.

What Ingram doesn't have on his side is history, there has only been one two time winner of the Heisman Trophy.  If the Flint, MI native recovers fully from his arthroscopic knee surgery and sees production comprable to his totals from a year ago, solid showings against Penn St., LSU, Auburn, Florida and Arkansas should be enough to garner him his second consecutive invite to New York.

We head up north to the land of cheese for our second finalist.  Wisconsin running back John Clay has rushed for 2,401 yards and scored 27 touchdowns in his two seasons at Camp Randall.  He also has the privilege of running behind what could be arguably the best offensive line in the country.  The Big 10 is full of talent on the defensive line this year, but the Badgers big uglies up front will pave the way to a very successful year for Clay. 

His biggest weapon in pursuit of a Heisman invite will be LT Gabe Carimi.  Carimi could be the first tackle selected in the 2011 NFL Draft and will neutralize the three biggest obstacles Clay has to face; OSU's Cameron Heyward, Iowa's Adrian Clayborn and Purdue's Paul Kerrigan.  Senior Guard John Moffit should also help get an extra push up the middle against OSU's Dexter Larimore and MSU's Greg Jones.  

Oregon's LaMichael James represents the third and final running back invited to the Heisman ceremony.  After a freshman season that saw James run for 1,546 yards and 14 touchdowns amidst controvesry, the sophomore is primed to be one of college footballs most electrifying athletes in 2010.

Oregon head coach Chip Kelly is also entering his second year in Eugene and knows exactly what his one man highlight reel is capable of.  Kelly will utilize James at nearly every position on the field to maximize his touches and create offensive mismatches.  Combine this with a schedule that features only one respectable defensive match-up in Tennessee, a school learning a new scheme, and it doesn't take much to envision a very big year for the Ducks number one threat.

This Heisman list would be incomplete without a few quarterbacks mixed into the fold, the first of which is Boise State's Kellen Moore.  In two years as a starter for the Broncos, Moore has amassed over 7,000 yards passing while throwing for 64 touchdowns.  He also dropped his interception total from 10 in '08 to only 3 last year in Boise's high octane offense.

Most importantly, BSU is 16-1 with Moore under center.   The only collegiate loss of his career came against fellow mid-major powerhouse TCU in the 2008 San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, a loss that was avenged a year later in the 2010 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.  Should the junior continue his progression as a player; 4,000 yards, 40 touchdowns and another undefeated season (including a possible BCS championship birth) should be more than enough to merit Heisman consideration.

Washington's Jake Locker is the last invite to the Bleachers Heisman party.  Locker has only served two full seasons as the Huskies starting quarterback but the improvement between his freshman and junior year was impressive.  His passing yards, completion percentage, touchdowns and passer rating all took major leaps from where they were in 2007.

With another year under Steve Sarkisian, a 3,000 yard 30 touchdown season is within Locker's grasp.  Those stats should be enough to garner an invite considering this years weak quarterback class.  Locker's challenge is whether or not the Senior can do enough to make the Huskies a contender in the Pac10.  At the end of the day Locker is simply an NFL caliber arm on a bad team.  If he has any hope of winning this years Heisman, he'll need to turn a 6-6 team into a New Year's bowl contender.

Although these are the five names the Bleachers are staking its reputation on this fall, one slight concession needs to be allowed, a couple of replacement picks in case of injury.  Should Moore or Locker find themselves missing significant time due to injury, don't be surprised if Florida's John Brantley fills their shoes.

The Gators are again ranked in the Top 5 of the AP pre-season poll despite losing nearly half of it's starters from a year ago.  Brantley should have a smooth transition and prove that his predecessor, a magnetic player to say the least, was a product of Urban Meyer and a consistently amazing Florida recruiting class year after year.

Should any of the running backs find themselves hurt I offer up a replacement that some may consider slightly out of left field.  Last years Heisman race featured an all-world Defensive Tackle out of Nebraska, don't be too shocked if the voters try to find another fashionable nominee from the defensive side of the ball.  If that player exists, it's North Carolina's Robert Quinn. 

This Defensive End is an absolute monster that can not be stopped playing man to man.  The problem, however, is you can't double team him either.  UNC features a "pick your own poison" defense that can beat you from anywhere on the field.  You can't run up the middle with Marvin Austin clogging up the lanes, Quan Sturdivant can be lined up at Line Backer opposite of Quinn to create another defensive mismatch and you can't count on throwing the ball against a Tar Heel secondary that features four NFL caliber players.  As long as this UNC eligibility fiasco blows over realitvely quickly, Quinn could sack himself an invite to the Heisman Ceremony.